SURVIVING 2020: AIRCRAFT CARRIER OR DINGHY?

SURVIVING 2020: AIRCRAFT CARRIER OR DINGHY?

Nowcasting is what your inbox is being flooded with from investment bankers and wealth managers. Try to ignore them. Everyone has their model and assumptions. Goldman Sachs first modeled a 20% dip in US GDP for Q2, then revised it to 35% down. I’ve seen other equally sophisticated models predict 50%. It’s all Nowcasting, slightly useful directionally, but imprecise as to numbers. Unless you’re an active market maker or finance researcher, it’s not very emotionally healthy.